Feb 9·edited Feb 9Liked by Noah Carl

Ending the war "as soon as possible" will only help if Ukraine wins decisively. Minsk III would leave a Damoclean sword hanging over Ukrainian civil society, which would cause even more refugees. A partition along the Dnieper (thankfully unrealistic at this point of time) would permanently displace a large part of the country's population, even if Western Ukraine can improve its standing to Eastern EU levels. (Remember Vietnam?) No one in Eastern Europe trusts Putin's guarantees any more, and it is only reasonable to expect him to repeat a winning formula, so even some Eastern EU countries would lose their best and brightest.

The cynic in me will notice that Western countries like Germany and Britain probably *want* more Eastern EU immigration even if they cannot quite find the words for this desire. But narrowing one's realm of influence (and free movement even) further and further is not a good long-term strategy.

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> So Ukrainian refugees are more than twice as well-educated as the population at large, despite having a similar age structure.

This is slightly ironic in light of the fact that surveys also suggest that willingness to fight Russia until the recovery of all territories (pre-22/2/22) tracks education.

Anyhow, not much to disagree with here, it tracks my own analysis. Post-war backflow will be balanced by men reuniting with wives in the EU. Ironically, virtually regardless of what happens militarily, Russia will further improve its demographic preponderance over Ukraine (this may or may not be relevant so far as the future is concerned; depends on the political and security reconfigurations that accompany the war's end). The one thing Ukraine does have have going for it is that any "Malorossiyan" or "pluralist" identity, as opposed to "monist" Ukrainianism, already very enervated prior to the war, will end forever. Whether the frontlines end up, there's just be Russians and Ukrainians to the east and west of them, respectively.

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