In my last newsletter, I argued that the UK’s lockdowns were probably a mistake. Lockdowns have not been associated with substantially fewer deaths from COVID-19, except in geographically peripheral countries that imposed strict border controls at the start. The increases in mortality associated with COVID-19 – even in the worst hit Western countries – have been small relative to pre-existing differences. And the societal costs of lockdowns have been substantial, with preliminary analyses suggesting they almost certainly outweighed the benefits.